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新型冠状病毒感染肺炎在中国武汉的初期传播动力学
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia


Qun Li ... 呼吸系统疾病 • 2020.01.29

这些数据,为我们勾画了早期疫情的真相

 

张洪涛

宾夕法尼亚大学医学院病理及实验医药系

 

1月30日,权威临床医学杂志《新英格兰医学杂志》和《柳叶刀》发表了3篇有关新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)的研究报告。

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摘要


背景

2019年12月和2020年1月,在中国湖北省武汉市出现了新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)感染肺炎(NCIP)的最初病例。我们分析了武汉最早的425例确诊病例的数据,以确定NCIP的流行病学特征。

 

方法

我们收集了截至2020年1月22日已报告的,经实验室确诊的NCIP病例的人口统计学特征、暴露史和疾病时间线的信息。我们描述了病例特征,并估计了关键流行病学延迟时间分布情况。在呈指数增长的初期,我们估计了传染病倍增时间和基本再生数。

 

结果

在最早的425例NCIP确诊患者中,中位年龄为59岁,56%为男性。在2020年1月1日前发病的病例中,大部分(55%)与华南海鲜批发市场相关,而在此后发病的病例中,仅8.6%与华南海鲜批发市场相关。平均潜伏期为5.2天(95%置信区间[CI],4.1~7.0),潜伏期分布情况的第95百分位数为12.5天。在初期,倍增时间为7.4天。由一人传至另一人的平均间隔时间(serial interval)为7.5天(95% CI,5.3~19),基本再生数估计为2.2(95% CI,1.4~3.9)。

 

结论

根据这一信息,有证据表明,自2019年12月中旬以来,密切接触者之间已发生人际传播。如果其他地区的传播动力学也相似,我们将需要付出相当大的努力来减少传播,从而控制疫情。应在高危人群中采取预防或减少传播的措施。(由中国科学技术部等资助。)





作者信息

Qun Li, M.Med., Xuhua Guan, Ph.D., Peng Wu, Ph.D., Xiaoye Wang, M.P.H., Lei Zhou, M.Med., Yeqing Tong, Ph.D., Ruiqi Ren, M.Med., Kathy S.M. Leung, Ph.D., Eric H.Y. Lau, Ph.D., Jessica Y. Wong, Ph.D., Xuesen Xing, Ph.D., Nijuan Xiang, M.Med., Yang Wu, M.Sc., Chao Li, M.P.H., Qi Chen, M.Sc., Dan Li, M.P.H., Tian Liu, B.Med., Jing Zhao, M.Sc., Man Liu, M.Sc., Wenxiao Tu, M.Med., Chuding Chen, M.Sc., Lianmei Jin, M.Med., Rui Yang, M.Med., Qi Wang, M.P.H., Suhua Zhou, M.Med., Rui Wang, M.D., Hui Liu, M.Med., Yinbo Luo, M.Sc., Yuan Liu, M.Med., Ge Shao, B.Med., Huan Li, M.P.H., Zhongfa Tao, M.P.H., Yang Yang, M.Med., Zhiqiang Deng, M.Med., Boxi Liu, M.P.H., Zhitao Ma, M.Med., Yanping Zhang, M.Med., Guoqing Shi, M.P.H., Tommy T.Y. Lam, Ph.D., Joseph T. Wu, Ph.D., George F. Gao, D.Phil., Benjamin J. Cowling, Ph.D., Bo Yang, M.Sc., Gabriel M. Leung, M.D., and Zijian Feng, M.Med.
From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (Q.L., X.W., L.Z., R.R., N.X., C.L., D.L., J.Z., W.T., L.J., Q.W., R.W., Y.Z., G. Shi, G.F.G., Z.F.), the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei (X.G., Y.T., X.X., Y.W., Q.C., M.L., C.C., R.Y., S.Z., Y. Luo, B.Y.), the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (P.W., K.S.M.L., E.H.Y.L., J.Y.W., T.T.Y.L., J.T.W., B.J.C., G.M.L.), the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (T.L., R.Y., S.Z., H. Liu, Y. Liu, G. Shao, H. Li, Z.T.), the Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou, Hubei (T.L.), the Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, Sichuan (H. Liu); the Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan (Y. Liu), the Anyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Anyang, Henan (G. Shao), the Panjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Panjin, Liaoning (H. Li), the Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, Guizhou (Z.T.), the Jiading District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai (Y.Y.), the Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang, Jiangxi (Z.D.), the Inner Mongolia Comprehensive Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia (B.L.), and the Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai (Z.M.) — all in China. Address reprint requests to Dr. Feng at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 155 Changbai Rd., Changping District, Beijing, China, or at fengzj@chinacdc.cn; to Dr. G.M. Leung or Dr. Cowling at the School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Rd., Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China, or at gmleung@hku.hk or bcowling@hku.hk, respectively; or to Dr. B. Yang at the Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 35 Zhuodaoquan North Rd., Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei, China, or at 49205957@qq.com.

 

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